월스트리트저널 읽기 - Home Sales, AI, ChatGPT etc.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2023

 

◈ Home Sales Are Set To See Slowest Year Since at Least 2011 (주택 판매는 적어도 2011년 이후로 가장 저조한 해를 보일 예정이다)

 

 

The highest mortgage rates in 23 years are dragging down home sales to their lowest levels since the subprime crisis period.

 

Sales of previously owned homes in 2023 are expected to dwindle to a rate not seen since at least 2011, when the U.S. population was smaller and the country was recovering from one of the worst housing crises ever, according to many economist forecasts.

 

Chen Zhao, economics research lead at real-estate brokerage Redfin, estimated that total existing-home sales in 2023 would amount to around 4.1 million, which would mark the smallest number of sales since about 2008, the year that Lehman Brothers collapsed and sparked the global financial crisis.

 

◈ Humans Can Be a Hurdle to AI's Benefits (인간은 인공지능의 이익에 장애물이 될 수 있다)

 

 

Ask ChatGPT how soon artificial intelligence could boost the U.S. economy, and the answer is mostly noncommittal: “challenging to predict precisely.”

 

It is the same answer many economists would give.

 

The increasing popularity of generative artificial-intelligence tools—ones, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, that create new content such as text and images—by consumers and companies has some economists predicting the technology will revolutionize workplaces and spur economic growth by lifting productivity, or output per hour, out of a long lull.

 

But that is based on the theoretical potential of the technology. The gains might be smaller, or slower to materialize, depending on several factors. One is the extent to which the technology is widely adopted and people become skilled at using it. Another is, once the technology is adopted, how well companies translate it into higher productivity.

 

One of the more optimistic estimates comes from Gold-man Sachs, whose economists think generative AI could provide a boost of 1.5 percentage points to annual U.S. productivity growth over the 10 years after it is widely adopted. That would roughly double the average productivity growth rate since late 2007. It would also translate up to a similar-size bump to growth in U.S. gross domestic product over the same time horizon, they said. For example, Federal Reserve officials put the U.S. long-term growth rate at 1.8%, so that could in theory boost growth to as much as 3.3%.

 

◈ Fiber Firm Accepts $3.1 Billion Buyout (섬유 회사, 31억 달러 인수 승인)

 

 

Consolidated Communications has agreed to be bought for $3.1 billion, including debt, in a take-private deal that will remove the fiber company from the public markets as it grapples with higher interest rates and rising costs.

 

Searchlight Capital Partners, a private-equity firm that already owns more than 34% of Consolidated Communications, and British Columbia Investment Management agreed to pay $4.70 a share for the company.

 

The firms in April offered to buy Consolidated Communications for $4 a share, but a shareholder urged the board to reject that offer, saying it undervalued the company. The shareholder, Wildcat Capital Management, urged the board in July not to accept an offer below $14 a share.

 

◈ Schwab Deposit Outflows Ease, Sparking Jump in Stock Price (슈왑 예금 유출 완화, 주식 가격 급등 촉발)

 

 

Brokerage giant Charles Schwab on Monday said bank deposit outflows slowed down in the latest quarter, sparking a 4.7% increase in its shares and making them among the top performers on the day in the S& P 500.

 

The bank had about $284 billion in deposits at the end of the third quarter, down 7% from the previous quarter.

 

Compared with a year earlier, Schwab lost about $111 billion in deposits, or 28%.

 

Schwab said the pace of client cash leaving its bank has eased, even though interest rates continued to rise over the quarter. Bank sweep deposits increased month over month in September for the first time since March 2022. Most of Schwab’s deposits are gathered by its brokerage arm, where the firm sweeps investors’ cash into its banking unit.

 

오늘도 경제신문으로 세상을 봅니다.