월스트리트 저널 읽기 - A Soft Landing, Small Investors, Rate Rise etc.

Monday, October 16, 2023

 

◈ Chance of a Recession Ticks Below 50% (경기 침체 가능성 50% 미만)

 

 

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

 

In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That’s the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.

 

The median probability was 50%, in effect a coin flip.

 

“The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil subsides and strong labor market resilience and rising real incomes support consumer demand,” BMO economists Doug Porter and Scott Anderson said in the survey.

 

◈ A Soft Landing in the U.S. Could Be Hard for Others (미국의 연착륙은 다른 나라들에게 어려울 수도 있다)

 

 

The U.S. economy might be heading for a soft landing. But the rest of the world could be in for a jolt.

 

Global financial officials say they are grappling with an increasingly fractured economic outlook, as many countries struggle with the lasting scars of the Covid-19 pandemic while others power ahead.

 

Surprising strength in the U.S. economy poses a threat to the rest of the world, portending higher interest rates for longer and a stronger dollar that will weigh on other countries’ growth. A jump in oil prices since the summer is also threatening to reignite inflation just as many global central banks thought they were at the end of policy-tightening cycles.

 

◈ Small Investors Cut Stock Trading (소액 투자자들이 주식 거래를 줄이다)

 

 

Trading in the stock market just isn’t much fun anymore.

 

Individual investors are dialing back how much risk they are taking across markets. Some are accumulating cash or stashing it in funds tracking bonds or money markets to take advantage of yields that have soared to 16-year highs.

 

Others are backing away from turbocharged bets on stocks, borrowing less to amplify their positions.

 

Many have pulled money out of U.S. stocks, putting eqtion, exchange-traded and mutual funds on track for the first year of outflows since 2020.

 

Although stocks have staged a rebound that has pushed the S& P 500 up 13% this year, some individuals say they are still nursing giant losses from 2022, when major indexes suffered their worst year since the 2008 financial crisis. Many have learned it is tough to make money when stocks aren’t steadily climbing—or have abandoned dreams of making a living trading stocks.

 

◈ Taylor Swift Movie Tops $126 Million (테일러 스위프트 영화, 1억 2,600만 달러 돌파)

 

 

Call it what you want, Taylor Swift’s concert film was a hit at the box office.

 

“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” grossed an estimated $126 million to $130 million in global ticket sales its opening weekend, according to AMC Theatres Distribution, putting it on par with some of the year’s biggest theatrical debuts.

 

Domestically, Swift’s film took in an estimated $95 million to $97 million, out-grossing several high-profile studio disappointments this year, such as “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” “Fast X” and “The Flash.”

 

It is likely to rank sixth after “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” from Walt Disney’s

 

◈ Rate Rise Squeezes Some Companies (금리 인상이 일부 기업을 압박하다)

 

 

Soaring interest expenses are turning the bottom line red at an increasing number of companies with low credit ratings, a problem that is expected to worsen as the rates on their loans reset.

 

The recent surge in interest rates has had an outsize impact on companies that have issued speculative, floating-rate debt, such as education software company Power-School Holdings, auto-parts supplier Cooper-Standard Holdings and travel-software company Sabre.

 

Risky companies raced to borrow when interest rates were ultralow in 2020 and 2021, setting records for junk-bond and leveraged-loan issuance. But the payments on the loans adjust with short-term rates influenced by the Federal Reserve. Because the rates typically reset quarterly and are backward-looking, the companies’ interest expenses are poised to keep rising, cutting into profits.

 

Treasury yields started climbing in July and gained steam in September. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, a critical driver of U.S. borrowing costs, approached 4.9% earlier this month for the first time since 2007 and has since pulled back. The extra yield junk-rated borrowers pay on top of Treasurys also has been climbing but remains far below levels typically associated with a recession.

 

◈ Natural Gas Is More Vulnerable Than Oil (석유보다 더 취약한 천연가스)

 

 

The impact of war in Israel on the global economy might be clearer in electricity bills than prices at the pump.

 

The old reflex when tensions rise in the Middle East is to worry about oil. But the bigger price moves last week have been in natural- gas markets, which have no plan B when supply is hit.

 

Brent crude has risen 7.5% since Hamas attacked Israel in an assault that killed 1,300 people. Despite its immense human cost, the fighting hasn’t had any impact on the global oil supply so far, though that could change if the conflict spreads, especially if Iran gets involved.

 

Meanwhile, Europe’s TTF natural gas benchmark surged more than 40% last week. The Israeli energy ministry asked Chevron to stop production at the Tamar offshore gas field, west of Haifa, because of the conflict. Also, a gas export pipeline that runs to Egypt close to Gaza has been closed.

 

The shutdowns will have some impact on regional energy balances, and potentially Egypt’s exports of liquefied natural gas, if they go on for a long time, according to Zongqiang Luo, analyst at Rystad Energy. But the effect on global LNG supply looks limited. However, there was also a reminder last week of how vulnerable energy infrastructure is as the world becomes more unstable, when suspected sabotage caused a leak in a Baltic undersea gas pipeline. This has made traders nervous.

 

◈ Gasoline Prices Tumble, Cutting Inflation Support (휘발유 가격 폭락, 인플레이션 지원 축소)

 

 

Gasoline markets have shifted into reverse.

 

Wholesale costs have slid in recent weeks, undoing a late-summer run-up that sparked fears of an inflationary shock while promising relief to drivers and the Federal Reserve. Already, gas stations around the U.S. are cutting prices at the pump, a trend that traders on Wall Street suggest will continue in the coming weeks.

 

The about-face has hammered fuel makers’ margins, slimming the profits they make from gasoline to their lowest levels since late 2020, according to FactSet. Investors have tapped the brakes and, at least momentarily, halted a years-long ascent in refiner stocks to records or near records.

 

The declines have come as the end of summer driving season paved the way for a cyclical dip in American fuel prices and gas guzzling. Analysts also are looking at another factor adding momentum to the downward turn: Prices rose high enough that they pushed some drivers in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere to stay off the road.

 

오늘도 경제신문으로 세상을 봅니다.

 

2023.10.15 - [경제신문 읽기] - 월스트리트저널 읽기 - Hedge Funds, China's Economy, Microsoft

월스트리트저널 읽기 - Hedge Funds, China's Economy, Microsoft