월스트리트저널 읽기 - Bond, Economy, S&P

<TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2023>

 

◈ Bond Trades at 5% for First Time in 16 Years(채권, 16년 만에 5%에 거래)

 

 

A deepening selloff in the U.S. bond market drove the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 5% in intraday trading for the first time in 16 years, marking a milestone that has rattled stocks, lifted mortgage rates and fueled persistent fears of an economic slowdown.

 

A critical driver of U.S. borrowing costs, the 10-year yield rose as high as 5.021% in early-morning trading Mon-day, up from about 3.8% at the start of the year. It then reversed course and settled at 4.836% after the long-awaited breach of 5% stoked fresh buying interest.

 

Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, have climbed since the start of 2022, when investors began worrying in earnest that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates to fight inflation.

 

In recent weeks, though, the selloff has only grown more intense and potentially destabilizing, with the 10-year yield jumping at times more than 0.1 percentage point a day and investors scrambling for explanations. The lack of clarity has only added to investors’ anxieties, reflected by declines in stocks that have pulled major indexes off their summer highs.

 

◈ Economy Heats Up, Defying Predictions(경제가 예측을 뒤엎고 달아오르고 있다)

 

 

Earlier this year, economists and Federal Reserve officials predicted that the U.S. economy would be sputtering by now as higher interest rates cut into spending and investment.

 

The opposite is happening. Recent economic data suggest the economy is accelerating despite higher borrowing costs, the resumption of student- loan payments, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

 

Analysts, many of whom had expected a recession this year, are pushing up their forecasts. Goldman Sachs economists last week raised their growth estimate for the third quarter ended Sept. 30 to an annual rate of 4% from 3.7%. High Frequency Economics, an economic consulting firm, raised its third-quarter forecast to 4.6% from 4.4% and its fourth-quarter forecast to 1.2% from 1%.

 

A figure in that forecast range for the third quarter would represent acceleration from 2.2% growth in the first quarter and 2.1% in the second. The Commerce Department reports the official figure Thursday.

 

◈ S&P Falls as Investors Dive Back Into Bonds(투자자들이 다시 채권에 뛰어들면서 S&P 하락)

 

 

Investors have been waiting for the right moment to jump back in the frigid bond market. On Monday, some of them took the plunge. A months-long bond selloff helped push the 10year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% on Monday morning for the first time since 2007. Some investors saw the milestone as a buying opportunity, quickly pushing yields back to 4.836%. Yields rise as prices fall.

 

The stock market’s response to Monday’s reversal was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, or 191 points. The S& P 500 ticked 0.2% downward, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3%.

 

Stocks have stagnated in the second half as investors grapple with the possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, meaning bigger borrowing costs on everything from homes and cars to companies’ capital projects. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could tighten monetary policy further if inflation doesn’t continue to cool.

 

오늘도 경제신문으로 세상을 봅니다.

 

2023.10.23 - [경제신문 읽기] - 월스트리트저널 읽기 - Nike, Housing, American Express

월스트리트저널 읽기 - Nike, Housing, American Express