월스트리트저널 읽기 - Iran, China's Economy, Instacart etc.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

 

◈ Iran Releases Five Americans In Exchange for Frozen Funds(이란, 동결자금 대가로 미국인 5명 석방)

 

Five Americans who had been imprisoned in Iran were on their way to the U.S. Monday after the Biden administration released billions of dollars in revenue from Iranian energy sales that had been frozen under sanctions, senior U.S. officials said.

 

The detainees, along with the wife of one and the mother of another, flew to Doha, Qatar, where they were transferred from Iranian to Qatari custody and greeted by U.S. officials, before heading to the Washington, D.C., area.

 

The release of the Americans, all of whom hold at least dual nationality, came against the backdrop of flailing efforts by the Biden administration to revive nuclear talks with Iran and Republican criticism over the administration’s decision to release the funds, which the administration said are to be used strictly for humanitarian purposes.

 

Five Iranians were set to be released as part of the deal, U.S. officials said. Two who don’t have legal status in the U.S. will be sent back to Iran through Doha, while U.S. officials declined to discuss the status of the other three.

 

◈ China's Economy Faces Even Bigger Housing Crisis(중국의 경제는 더 큰 주택 위기에 직면해 있다)

 

China’s giant housing industry is lurching into a new crisis that threatens to be the country’s worst yet.

 

Two years ago, the debt-laden developer China Evergrande Group spiraled into insolvency, bursting the country’s real-estate bubble and setting off a chain of developer defaults and business losses. The industry’s troubles have dragged down China’s economy.

 

Now China’s largest privately run property developer, Country Garden, is struggling to survive. Unlike Evergrande, which was brought down by its profligate habits, Country Garden’s troubles come from the retreat of investors and home buyers from the industry.

 

◈ Strong Growth, Rising Oil Prices Pose Risks to Fed's Soft Landing(강력한 성장, 유가 상승은 연준의 연착률에 위험을 초래한다)

 

On the eve of recessions in 1990, 2001 and 2007, many Wall Street economists proclaimed the U.S. was on the cusp of achieving a soft landing, in which interest-rate increases corralled inflation without causing a recession.

 

Similarly, this summer’s combination of easing inflation and a cooling labor market has fueled optimism among economists and Federal Reserve officials that this elusive goal might be in reach.

 

But soft landings are rare for a reason: They are tricky to pull off. “You need a lot of luck,” said Antúlio Bomfim, a former adviser to Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is now at Northern Trust Asset Management.

 

Fed officials are set to hold rates steady this week after raising them to a 22-year high because they don’t want to blow a shot at achieving a soft landing.

 

◈ Instacart Prices IPO at Top End(인스타카트, 최고 수준 IPO 추진)

 

Instacart said it set a price of $30 a share for its initial public offering, at the high end of expectations, in a further sign of resurgence in the IPO market.

 

At that price, the grocery-delivery company, which had been aiming for $28 to $30 a share after raising its target range, would be valued at $9.9 billion on a fully diluted basis. The pricing sets the stage for the San Francisco-based company to start trading Tuesday on the Nasdaq exchange under the symbol CART.

 

Instacart’s IPO follows the successful debut last week of British chip designer Arm, and should its shares trade well too, that could help set the stage for more startups to list their stocks.

 

After nearly two years of dormancy, the IPO market is picking up, and so is investor demand for new issues. On Thursday, Arm’s stock jumped 25% in its stock-market debut. That performance, as well as feedback from meetings with prospective investors, emboldened Instacart to raise its target price range last week from $26 to $28 per share.

 

◈ Fed Isn't Getting What It Expected(연방준비제도는 기대했던 것을 얻지 못하고 있다)

 

When the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee sits down Tuesday and Wednesday, one thing it has to grapple with is that underlying inflation is looking cooler than it thought just a few months ago. Another: The economy is looking much stronger.

 

The central bank’s policy makers will need to update the economic projections to reflect these changes. But an environment with a bit less inflation and more growth has interest- rate implications, too. While policy makers are almost certain to keep rates on hold, and might be comfortable leaving them on hold for the remainder of the year, rate cuts are likely to be even further from their minds now.

 

The last time the Fed released projections, at their June meeting, they showed policy makers on balance thought their preferred measure of consumer prices, from the Commerce Department, would be 3.2% higher in the fourth quarter this year from a year earlier. They forecast core prices, which exclude food and energy items to better capture inflation’s underlying trend, would be up 3.9%.

 

That headline inflation forecast might end up being in the ballpark, but mostly because of the run-up in fuel prices after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended crude-oil production cuts.

 

 

오늘도 경제신문으로 세상을 봅니다.